Why Jon Ossoff’s 2026 Senate Race Is Key for Democrats

Georgia’s Jon Ossoff has a big bull’s-eye on his back. Photo: Maansi Srivastava/The Washington Post/Getty Images

For nearly two decades, Georgia was considered a solidly red state. From 2002 until 2020, it was carried by Republicans from the top to the bottom of the ballot. Then in 2020, Georgia morphed into highly competitive purple state: It narrowly went for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024.

Now Nate Silver makes a very good case that the Peach State could be the next “tipping-point state” (the state that puts the winner past 270 electoral votes) in 2028. Georgia is beginning to look like a must-win state rather than a luxury acquisition for the next Democratic presidential nominee:

Between 1984 and 2012, Georgia voted 10.3 points to the right of the tipping-point state, on average. But between 2016 and 2024, that difference dropped to R +1.8. Joe Biden won the state by 0.2 points in 2020, similar to his 0.9-point win in what were technically the tipping-point states: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And although Harris lost Georgia, it actually moved even closer to the tipping point. (Harris lost it by 2.2 points, compared to 1.7 in the tipping point of Pennsylvania.)

Georgia has become very competitive due to Democratic improvements in the perpetually growing Atlanta metro region, with its increasingly rich racial and ethnic diversity and its large number of Yankee transplants and “knowledge workers.” As Silver explains:

Joe Biden did better than Hillary Clinton in the Atlanta metro region, and Kamala Harris further improved on Biden’s margins there in 2024, one of the few places anywhere in the country where she did so. …

It’s relatively young, with a median age of 37.6, and increasingly wealthy and college-educated — 43 percent of adults there have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to the U.S. average of 36 percent. And one-third of its population is Black, but only 12 percent is Hispanic. … in contrast to nearly every other state in the South, modeled partisanship data from the state suggests that new residents are substantially left-leaning (D +12). In short, it’s a state where young professionals go when they want Southern amenities but multicultural vibes. Combined with the general shift of the suburbs toward Democrats — less than one-tenth of the population lives in the city proper — that’s about as favorable a set of circumstances as you’ll find for Democrats based on recent trends.

The victory of not one but two Democrats in Georgia’s 2020 U.S. Senate races was an even bigger surprise than Biden’s win. Both Senate races went to January 2021 general-election runoffs. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won those races too, flipping control of the Senate and making much of Biden’s first- and second-year agenda in Congress possible.

Now Ossoff is up for reelection in 2026. National Republicans have targeted this race, claiming that Ossoff (a pretty standard-brand centrist Democrat on most issues) is too liberal for Georgia. They’re already running millions of dollars in attack ads against him. But unfortunately, they could not convince their dream candidate, Brian Kemp, to run for Senate. Trump intervened to talk Ossoff’s own dream opponent, Marjorie Taylor Greene, out of entering the race; she would have made the Democrat a huge dollar magnet and an overwhelming favorite. The field slowly assembling to challenge Ossoff had as its initial candidates U.S. representative Buddy Carter and the state insurance commissioner, John King. But just today King withdrew at Kemp’s request because the governor is planning to endorse a new candidate, former pro and college football coach Derek Dooley, son of the legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley and a close friend of Kemp’s. Another congressman, MAGA loudmouth Mike Collins, could also run. But even if Republicans find a consensus candidate, nobody should underestimate Ossoff, who probably did more than anyone else to put together the field operation for Democrats in 2020 and whose campaign currently has $15 million in cash-on-hand.

According to a Republican strategist who spoke to Silver: “I think if there is a really strong Republican nominee, they’ve got a chance. And I think if it’s a mediocre-to-not-good candidate, then Ossoff has an edge.” Silver’s polling averages show Ossoff with an 8.1 percent advantage over named Republican opponents (though some of that is clearly name ID), and prediction markets make the incumbent a two-to-one favorite.

If Ossoff loses, however, in what should be a year when all Democrats benefit from voter distaste with the party running Washington, it will be a bad sign for his party in 2028. While the battle for the House will be center stage in the 2026 midterms, keep an eye on Ossoff’s race as well.