For weeks, Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings were relatively stable if largely underwater with the averages mostly depending on which polls appeared when. But now there are now signs the 47th president’s popularity is sagging notably again and could deteriorate further amid the burgeoning scandal over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and continued concerns with Trump policies.
The numbers are already showing a distinct contrast with Trump’s triumphant mood in the wake of the enactment of his One Big Beautiful Bill. In the most reliable polling averages, from Silver Bulletin, Trump’s job-approval ratio now stands at 43.7 percent positive, 53.5 percent negative. His net approval rating of minus-9.8 percent is the lowest of his second term, lower than the point in late April when market jitters over his tariff program were peaking. And it’s a significant slide from the net approval average of minus-4.2 percent on June 22.
Some of the deterioration in Trump’s popularity may be the product of the mix of pollsters releasing surveys recently. In the past month, polls have appeared from outlets that have traditionally given Trump some of his worst ratings: American Research Group (which now gives Trump a minus-21 percent net approval), YouGov/Yahoo (minus-16 percent net approval), and AP/NORC (minus-18 percent net approval). Trump’s polling average was pulled down further by two surveys, each from Reuters-Ipsos (both showing minus-13 percent net approval) and Quinnipiac (minus-13 percent net approval and then minus-14 net approval), and four from YouGov/Economist (minus-14 percent, then minus-11 percent, then minus-11 percent, and most recently minus-14 percent). On the other hand, in the past month Trump’s polling average has benefited from surveys by Trafalgar Group (plus-10 percent net approval), American Pulse (plus-1 percent net approval), Emerson College (minus-1 percent net approval), two from RMG Research (plus-4 percent and plus-3 percent net approval), and the daily tracking polls from Rasmussen Reports. Overall, it’s fair to say that while Trump was marginally benefiting from the pollster mix in May and early June, he’s suffering marginally now.
Perhaps the most alarming trend for Trump is in AtlasIntel polling. This high-quality, and traditionally Republican-friendly, survey outlet, has shown Trump’s net approval rating sliding from minus-5 percent in March, to minus-6 percent in April, to minus-9 percent in May, to minus-11 percent in July.
It’s worth noting that the intensity of approval or disapproval continues to be a problem for the president. According to the latest Silver Bulletin averages, 43.3 percent of Americans disapprove strongly of Trump’s job performance, while 26.4 percent approve strongly.
In terms of specific issues, there’s little question that all the publicity about ICE raids and detention facilities has depressed Trump’s once-robust level of support for his immigration policies. The Silver Bulletin averages show his net approval ratings on immigration have slumped from plus-4 percent on June 10 to minus-5.6 percent now. The few polls measuring favorable attitudes toward ICE have shown plunging popularity for that agency even before its planned massive expansion of deportation efforts in the wake of the Trump megabill. And the highly influential Gallup outfit showed 62 percent of Americans disapproving of how Trump is handling immigration with 45 percent disapproving strongly. In particularly striking data since it reflects long-term trends, Gallup also found significantly rising support for liberalized immigration policies and decreased concern about levels of immigration. Trump’s border-security efforts may have been too successful for his own good.
Even though Trump’s approval ratings on immigration are underwater, they remain his “best” issue. The latest Atlas Intel poll rates his job approval on 18 separate issues, and his net approval ranges from a high of minus-9 percent on immigration, to minus-21 percent on “combating corruption,” to minus-25 percent on “deficit and national debt.”
It’s too early to assess the impact on Trump’s popularity of the One Big Beautiful Bill, since public awareness of it and understanding of its impact has been limited up until now. But early indications are not good for Trump. A July 10 through 13 survey from CNN/SSRS showed Americans disapproving of the legislation by a 61 percent to 39 percent margin. And a more granular Harvard-Harris poll, from an outlet typically favorable for the president, showed voters who had actually heard of the bill leaning against it with opponents exhibiting significantly greater intensity on the subject.
It’s unclear as of this writing whether Trump has or has not turned the corner on the Epstein-files issue, but it bears close watching since his problems extend deep into his MAGA Republican base. A new July 15 and 16 survey from Reuters-Ipsos showed 69 percent of Americans believe the Trump administration is hiding details from the Epstein files; 54 percent (including 30 percent of Republicans) disapprove of his handling of the controversy as compared to 17 percent (and just 35 percent of Republicans) who approve. G. Elliott Morris looks at all the available polling and concludes:
Averaging across polls, he has a -42 net approval rating on handling the files, with 17% approving of the president’s approach and 59% disapproving. This is the worst issue of his presidency by far.
General Republican support for Trump probably means he can weather concerns over Epstein in his voting base, unless lurid revelations implicating the president emerge. If, despite all his efforts to move on, the brouhaha intensifies, Trump’s already-depressed popularity could slide into genuinely dangerous territory.
This post has been updated.
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