Will Democrats Cave Again on the Next Government Shutdown?

Here we are again, Chuck. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images

If you thought the passage of Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act represented the final major legislative drama of 2025, think again. No, I’m not alluding to a possible vote on some Epstein files resolution following the monthlong House recess that Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly started early; that may or may not be on the national radar screen when Congress returns. But one thing that definitely will be on tap is the effort to keep the federal government operating when the stopgap-spending measure adopted by Congress in March expires on September 30.

As you may recall, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, rattled sabers about forcing a government shutdown to protest Trump’s many outrages. But ultimately just enough of them (including Schumer) caved and voted for a continuing resolution, to the disgust of many Democratic activists. Democrats are facing a nearly identical situation now after many more Trump outrages, including the One Big Beautiful Act, lots of presidential power grabs, and most recently, an insistence on a clawback of previously appropriated funds, confirmed on a party-line vote that made a mockery of the bipartisan vote for the stopgap-spending bill in March.

This isn’t really a problem for House Democrats, since only their Senate counterparts can filibuster an appropriations bill they dislike. But it’s a huge problem for Schumer; as Politico reports, he is in search of a strategy for the fall, looking here, there, and everywhere:

Democrats are having behind-the-scenes conversations on this topic, including during a more than hour-long meeting last week. Schumer is expected to have more member-level discussions about the September roadmap over the next two weeks, and has been in close touch with Democrats on the Appropriations Committee. He is also meeting with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Tuesday to discuss funding endgame strategy, said three people granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Those private discussions come as Schumer has stopped short of threatening a shutdown publicly — even as he warns Republicans against pursuing GOP-only spending tactics.

“He is making recommendations and listening to our recommendations,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said about Schumer in an interview, adding that Democrats are “starting to have significant discussions within the caucus about Sept. 30 and the appropriations and [continuing resolution] process.”

There’s no specific strategy even mentioned in these reports. Democrats are strategizing about developing a strategy. But the one definite thing is that they do not want to raise the expectations of rank-and-file Democrats again only to back down when it all gets real. They may have to inform angry Democrats that the only leverage they have is to filibuster another stopgap-spending bill (or possibly a yearlong “omnibus” appropriations bill covering most of the federal government) and let the government shut down, hoping the Republicans who control every inch of the federal government bear the brunt of the blame. But then they will probably have to put up or shut up: Many Republican activists are entirely sanguine about a government shutdown, and because they control the executive branch, there are things they can do without Congress to keep the wheels turning on anything they feel compelled to do.

Indeed, that’s one of the maddening things about the situation facing Democrats. They are furious at Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought for undermining the appropriations process with the one clawback already approved and others he is threatening to send forward. But in a government-shutdown scenario, the wily Project 2025 co-author will have enhanced powers to manipulate the government spending that’s still available. Indeed, Vought has publicly said he thinks the process of funding the government should be “less bipartisan” than it already is. So he would likely welcome a shutdown as an opportunity to test his authoritarian ideas about the president’s power to control federal spending without congressional input.

It’s possible Democrats can come up with some unpopular things Republicans want to spend money on — i.e., the bonanza of mass-deportation funding authorized in Trump’s megabill — and force them into concessions on other spending issues. But more likely than not, they’ll have to fish or cut bait on a shutdown, at least for a considerable period of time. Some Republicans in Congress may privately crave the peace of another stopgap-spending bill so they can focus on spinning what they’ve already done and campaigning for reelection. But unless Trump loses his zest for constant chaos and partisan warfare, they’ll likely hang tough and force the real decision onto the otherwise powerless opposition party. Losing high-stakes elections as the Democrats did last November really does have consequences.